It was anguish, boil down for revenge and days later, New Normal. That is how one can decipher the post-October 7, 2023, timeline of Gaza and the Middle East. It is pathetic and conscious-chilling to note that more than 50,000 have died so far, as Palestinians keep their fingers crossed. A year-long trajectory proved that there was no recourse to diplomacy, although world leaders flew thousands of miles to reach out to one another, yet with no substance. None went with the provisions of international law to save a hapless nation from the verge of extinction.
Out of a populace of two million in the besieged enclave of Gaza, more than a million have been shunted out by day-in and out shelling, bombardment and other modes of annihilation adopted by the Jewish state, and the remaining souls are living by chance. There was, however, a noticeable demographic shift worldwide in terms of human psychology as the divide between the street and palace in the Muslim world swelled, and intelligentsia in the West surprisingly went the Palestinian way at the cost of annoying the Zionists. The biggest strategic casualty was of Hamas. On July 31st, 2024, Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. The jaws dropped and the Islamic Republic was in utter embarrassment because its profile of a security state was brought to its knees as Mossad and Israel ploughed out their most-wanted from the umbrella of a revolutionary state. That was a first-ever direct strike by Israel on Iranian soil. Iran is yet to retaliate, and is keeping its fingers crossed before responding in kind.
Iran had already called its bluff by flying more than 300 sorties and drones over the Iron Dome of Israel on April 13, 2024, to avenge an attack wherein Israel attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1. It was an act of war, per se, for Iran under norms but its response ‘Operation True Promise’ raised no eyebrows.
The Zionist state is now experimenting with its Artificial Intelligence superiority by bombing digital gadgets in the hands of Hezbollah operatives across Lebanon. The booby-trapped attacks have put Hezbollah in a quandary stoking fears of a full-blown war with Israel. That state of affairs corresponds to the severity of the issue that the region has attained, as there are no measures underway to address the surging volatility.
A glance at the happenings suggest that October 7 salvos of Hamas have rejuvenated the region into new warfare. The Western states under the leadership of the United States are rallying for Israel, and there is no iota of shame and repentance in ignoring the tragedy that is unfolding over Palestinians. International organisations, especially the United Nations, are on the edges and there is little that they can do in their advisory capacity.
As caravans of aid, food and medical supplies amass at the Gaza-Egyptian border in the deserts of Sinai, it is troublesome to note that they await permission for disbursement for weeks, and perishable items go astray. This is homicide personified by Israel as it comes in defiance to international regulations.
This plight is simply in addition to destruction of hundreds of schools and hospitals, targeted vehemently by Israel under the excuse of these premises housing Hamas militants as human shields. A claim that is yet to be established. The non-state actors got a shot in the arm in the wake of jingoism that was generated in the region, and Iran was the sole beneficiary in it. Tehran’s proxies across the region flexed their muscles which underscored the hardcore power that the Islamic Republic can muster in adversity. That power paradigm is truly a nightmare for Arab Monarchs and the West, who keep their fingers crossed in a dilemma as reawakening among the masses for the cause of human rights, freedom and justice gets a new nudge.
Having experienced the flak in the wake of Arab Spring in 2010 that brought regimes and dispensations across the region at the brink, they have little choice but to play to the gallery. Saudi Arabia and Turkey’s balancing act to solicit some breathing space for Palestinians, and likewise Qatar and Egypt’s eagerness to broker a thaw are cases in desperation.
None have come full circle, as they lack the courage and conviction to dictate a solution to Israel and its allies, with whom these respective Muslim states are partners in multilateralism. In the same vein, the proactivity of Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen has turned the table of geo-strategic calculus. Now Iran is calling the shots in Hormuz, the Straits of Persia, and the Suez and beyond. The seizure of several vessels by Houthis confirms that impression, as the once little-rated militia took control of a British-owned and Japanese operated Israeli cargo ship in the southern Red Sea. Houthis have consistently targeted ships associated with Israel or the United States in the Red Sea too, and have almost torpedoed the navigational peace in the region despite the presence of US Centcom, warships and naval bases in Qatar and Bahrain.
This state of war-mongering is there to stay, and will deteriorate with the passage of time. Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, apart from the cardinal Hezbollah, have seen a new orientation as the Afghan Taliban too have registered their faith in fighting out for a cause that is humane to the core.
This development should be read with the soft power in terms of resorting to militancy that Iran had cultivated over the decades in many other countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Pakistan.
The fact that human-trafficking is ripe across the region, and people are eager to take up arms for Palestine emboldens political and state-centric forces who espouse to stand against the Western highhandedness against Muslim populace. This sentiment has found more ground in Western states where universities are rallying against Israel, and billboards in Manhattan and across downtowns of European capitals are proudly displaying anti-Jewish slogans.
That is the real change that is set-in in the wake of October 7, and there is no going back until and unless a statehood solution is found for Palestinians.
Let’s account for some real-time developments on the legal and state-level plateau that will harbinger a change. The most courageous stance came from South Africa that moved the International Court of Justice in December 2023 against Israel, and was joined by Malaysia, in pleading that Tel Aviv’s leadership should face retribution.
The ICJ made history as it pronounced that Israel is guilty of genocide, and it should account for it. Though heavens did not move in implementation, it made a candid point on the mosaic of international law that the Jewish state is a usurper, and must stand trial.
Subsequently in May 2024, the United Nations General Assembly overwhelmingly voted to support a Palestinian bid to become a full UN member by recognising it as qualified to join and recommending the UN Security Council “reconsider the matter favourably”.
Though that move was vetoed by the United States for obvious reasons of Israeli proximity, the divide on the world fora was all evident and a writing on the wall.
The dye has been cast finally on the heels of a July advisory opinion by the ICJ that said “Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories and settlements is illegal and should be withdrawn”, the United Nations General Assembly on September 17, 2024, adopted a Palestinian-drafted resolution that demands Israel end “its unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory” within 12 months. The UN also went a step ahead to “take steps towards ceasing the importation of any products originating in the Israeli settlements, as well as the provision or transfer of arms, munitions and related equipment to Israel…”
A year down the line after Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, realpolitik is out to redefine the future of the Mideast. Nothing will change on its own. Extreme pushback is desired. The presidential duel in the United States, irrespective of who makes it to the White House, will hardly impact what is happening for Palestinians.
The flagrant manner in which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was applauded in the US House of Representatives, and was praised and eulogised by legislators across the divide was outrageous.
That meant, it is futile to count on Washington as an honest broker in the Middle East. The million-dollar question is who will break the status quo, and come to the rescue of Palestinians by instilling a Two State Solution?
The Arabs lack the capacity and Iran and its proxies are over-rated to deliver on those lines.
China, which had taken on the Middle East politics by surprise as it brokered a thaw between Riyadh and Tehran and later went on to cobble an alliance among estranged Palestinian factions, can make a difference. The emerging multilateralism in the form of BRICS’ rejuvenation and the setback that Washington and its allies had faced over Ukraine are silver-lining of change. Perhaps, Palestinians will have to wait and endure more pain before they see light at the end of the tunnel.
