The economic corridors concept is not new rather it is the upgradation of the historical ancient Silk Road concept that consisted of a vast network of trade routes connecting the global East and West, thus primarily facilitating the exchange of trade goods and culture between China and Europe. As per the historical maps it was a complex system of land and sea routes that spanned thousands of miles across Asia, the Middle East, and parts of Africa and Europe. The Silk Road’s name comes from the Chinese silk that was a major traded commodity in those times. In the modern terms, the economic corridors are geographically defined areas where infrastructure development and strategic investments aim to stimulate economic growth and facilitate trade. They are essentially networks of transportation, energy, and communication infrastructure, often spanning across multiple countries, designed to connect key economic centres and promote regional integration. According to modern definition, the benefits of Economic Corridors, but not limited to, are mainly (1) Economic Growth and Job Creation, (2) Increased Trade and Investment, (3) Improved Living Standards, (4) Regional Integration and (5) Enhanced Market Access.
Some key critical corridors in the contemporary geopolitical arena are:
• The Middle Corridor: A potentially viable project aimed to strengthen the trade between China and Europe via Türkiye.
• The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – Aim to link Pakistan and China via the shortest route
• The New Eurasian Land Bridge Economic Corridor (NECBEC)
• North-South Corridor in Africa and many more exits.
• India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) – Aim to link India via ME to EU
• Iraq Development Road Project – Aim is to connect UAE to Turkey via Iraq
• International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) – Aim to link Russia and India via Iran
The objective of this paper is to elaborate the viability and importance of the Middle Corridor, its potential related to connectivity and foreseen challenges.
Brief Background:
The Middle Corridor is a multimodal land and sea transport route starting in China, crossing through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea and extending into the South Caucasus and Türkiye before reaching Europe. One of the most significant advantages of the Middle Corridor is its shorter total length, which is approximately 3,000 km less than the Northern Corridor going through Russia. The route not only decreases transit durations but also tackles concerns related to sanctions compliance by bypassing Russia, making it an appealing choice for businesses exploring new trade routes and markets. There is room for expansion in the Middle Corridor through the implementation of more effective measures, including advancements in digitalization, railways, ports, and tariff policies. Having this in mind, the South Caucasus is becoming one of the most important geostrategic regions, which is developing into a progressively attractive transport connection between Europe and Asia. In this context, Azerbaijan is increasingly recognised as a principal transport and logistics hub along the Middle Corridor.
The rise of China as an economic power has resulted in foreign policy shifts in Eurasia in recent years. Turkey’s foreign policy has also shifted towards Eurasia, expanding its reach into the Central Asian countries including Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan.
This paper analyses the prospects of the Belt and Road initiative (BRI) and Middle Corridor Initiative (MCI) for the regional economies in the aftermath of the Nagorno Karabakh War in 2020. Azerbaijan’s victory in the Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, led to an agreement between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. The agreement included establishing the “Nakhchivan Corridor” which links Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan (A province of Azerbaijan).
The new corridor paves the way for a new window of opportunities for the Caucasus region as a whole. The “Nakhchivan Corridor” will add a new artery to the Middle Corridor benefiting regional economic development.
Nakhchivan Corridor will be built between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan via Armenia, connecting Turkey to Central Asia.This is a strategic corridor stretching to Central Asia and likely to change the energy and trade equation in the Caucasus region.
The Belt and Road initiative (BRI) was formulated by China in 2013 to improve the trade links in Eurasia and to reach out to the EU market. The BRI has broad coverage, consisting of two main trade roads: 1) The first route follows the geographic landscape of the ancient Silk Road via Central Asia, Iran, and Turkey to Europe. 2) The second link is the “Maritime Silk Road” connecting the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea into the Mediterranean Sea. In 2015, Turkey proposed BRI connectivity by the Middle Corridor via the Caucasus and Central Asia as a shortcut between China and Europe. In order to achieve that goal, Turkey facilitated the Trans Caspian Sea route with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan while initiating the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway in 2017 (eurasianet.org, 2021).
The Trans-Caspian East-West Corridor (Middle Corridor) was initiated by Turkey along with other countries on the geographic path connecting China to Europe via Turkey to gain access to the trade routes and global markets. The Corridor connects China through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey to European markets (Kenderdine 2018). As part of the middle corridor, The Baku–Tbilisi-Kars Railway project became operational in 2017. The connection between Central Asia and Turkey is accessed via the ports of Azerbaijan (Port of Baku), Turkmenistan (Aktau), and Turkey (Samsun), called the Maritime Middle Corridor. (Alden and Sidiropoulos 2015). The lack of direct connection between Turkey and Azerbaijan prevented Turkey’s access to Central Asia via the Caspian Sea.
That constraint has disappeared following the Nagorno-Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020, as Azerbaijan liberated her occupied territories, changing the geopolitical map of the region while opening new window of opportunities via a new corridor initiative between Turkey, Nakhchivan, and Azerbaijan.
The regional transport links will be restored between Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Region via Armenia. Subsequently, Turkey will have direct access to Azerbaijan and Central Asia via the Caspian Sea.
The Belt and Road Initiative and Six Corridors:
China and the European Union (EU) are two major economic blocs with foreign trade volumes of $4.6 trillion and $17.6 trillion respectively as of 2019. China’s success as an exporter of manufactured goods in recent years led to the development of the Belt and Road initiative (BRI), an economic corridor between China and the EU.
BRI is conceptualized through six economic corridors, 1) New Eurasian Land Bridge is a railroad connecting China via Russia and Central Asia to Europe, with a route via Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, and Poland. The New Eurasian Land Bridge shortens the time and cuts the cost of transportation. 2) China, Mongolia, and the Russia Corridor is an expressway linking Northern China to Russia. 3) China, Central Asia, West Asia Corridor is a railway connecting China via Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea. In addition to the railway, the construction of roads will transform the Central Asian States with limited trade relations. 4) China, Indochina Peninsula Corridor links China via Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam, Malaysia to Singapore.
All of these countries have significant trade relations with China. 5) Bangladesh, China, Myanmar Corridor is not an active corridor due to disputes between India and China. This is a critical Project since there is a construction of oil and gas pipelines along this route through Myanmar. 6) China Pakistan Corridor linking China to Pakistan is the fastest of the BRI projects. The total number of countries that signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with China to join BRI has risen up to 140, as of January 2021.
The Middle Corridor:
Trans-Caspian East-West-Middle Corridor Initiative and the BRI Initiative were signed by Turkey and China in 2015, during the G-20 Leaders’ Summit. The Middle Corridor Initiative (MCI) projects the revival of the ancient “Silk Road” concept, increasing the connectivity between east and west. The Silk Road is a historical trade link connecting China to Rome during the Han Dynasty in the 13th century. The silk trade was attributed great importance since it was a symbol of wealth and luxury during the period and it was produced only in China and sold in Asia Minor (Turkey). Currently, the BRI and MCI are likely to revive the ancient silk route, hence shifting the axis of global trade from West to East. The MCI is a multimodal transport line from Turkey to China via the Caucasus, Georgia, Azerbaijan, the Caspian Sea and Central Asia. MCI links Georgia and Azerbaijan by railway and to the Caspian Sea through land transport, crosses the Caspian transit corridor to China via the transport route of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, or Kazakhstan, intersecting with BRI as shown in Figure 1.
The Baku–Tbilisi–Kars (BTK) corridor provides the shortest rail link between China and Europe, reducing the transport time to 12 days from a month between China and Turkey, hence creating better opportunities compared to competitive links.
BTK became operational in 2017, costing about $450 million. Following the completion of the Baku–Tbilisi– Kars (BTK) railway link, the national railways of Turkey are connected to the Trans Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). The Middle Corridor is the most competitive alternative linking China to Europe and the Middle East bypassing Russia as shown in Figure 2. Governments of the world are in the process of getting freight traffic onto railways, since rail transport is cheaper than air transport and faster than maritime freight. Currently, the freight traffic between Turkey, Europe, and China is moving along the BTK, which was built to fill a missing link in the MCI, creating a high-speed rail freight link between Turkey, Europe, and China via the Caucasus and the Caspian. The BTK is estimated to carry up to 30 million tons of freight per annum in the near future and just like hundreds of years ago, cargo will be delivered from China to Europe by the Silk Road. Given the opportunities, China assigns greater importance to Azerbaijan, as the cargo costs are likely to be minimized and arrive faster to Europe.
The Middle Corridor geography connects Turkey to Central Asia through Georgia, Azerbaijan, and the Caspian Sea. Recently, Europe is also connected to Asia through the trade routes across Russia and Iran. The Middle Corridor offers shorter trade route from Europe to Asia. The project involves a railway connecting Central Asian economies to the European market. Railways are extended by pipelines.
The Southern Gas Corridor is a 3,500-kilometer-long energy project consisting of three main pipelines: 1) Expanded South Caucasus Pipeline (SCPx) running through Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2) Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) running via Turkey, and 3) Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) via Greece and Albania to Italy, reaching the European market. The Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) is extended via the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) and started supplying natural gas to the European market. Turkey’s aspiration to become an energy transit hub is likely to be realized as the Trans-Adriatic and the South Caucasus Pipeline along with the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline transport gas from Central Asia to Europe. Currently, Turkey is importing gas both from Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan. From Turkey’s perspective, Azerbaijani gas is cheaper compared to Russian and Iranian gas, providing a better alternative for Turkey.
Bilateral relations between Turkey and Russia have improved in recent years. Russia is the main trading partner for Central Asian states as well as Turkey. There are preferential treatments in bilateral agreements between these countries.
Russia exports raw materials including oil, petroleum products, natural gas, coal, and metals and imports fruits, fish and nuts, clothing and shoes, household appliances, vehicles, equipment, weapons, watches, and construction services.
Akkuyu, the first nuclear power plant of Turkey that is in the process of building, will generate a total of 4,800 MW electricity, beginning 2023. The Russian state-owned nuclear power company Rosatom has undertaken the project. Critics note that the Project will allow Russia to control a significant part of Turkey’s electricity production. Both sides enjoy partnership rather than risks, as their collaboration expands in the energy sector. Besides the bilateral economic collaboration between Turkey and Russia, they contribute to the development of the region and likely to expand economic ties to the Middle East and North Africa further.
Total gas received from Azerbaijan by Turkey reached 6,3 billion cubic meters during the first half of 2020, out of which exports via TANAP stood at 3 billion cubic meters, representing a 24% increase compared to the same period in 2019. Russia’s share in Turkey’s gas imports declined to 24% (4 billion cubic meters) during the same period, compared to 33% in the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, Turkey increased LNG imports from the US to 1 million tons during the same period.
Turkey, like Europe, is in the diversification process of energy intake, to strengthen energy security. A rise in gas imports from Azerbaijan does not indicate competition between Russia and Azerbaijan, as those countries developed a mutually beneficial partnership in global markets.
Turkey has been exploring energy reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea region. In 2020, Turkey announced a new gas field discovery in two separate locations amounting to 320 billion cubic meters in the Black Sea. It is argued that the discovery is an excerpt of a large gas reserve lying in the field and the exploitation of this reserve will likely reduce Turkey’s gas bill in 2023. Currently, Turkey’s drilling activities in Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea continue. Gas finds in these areas will help Turkey diversify her energy sources and curb current account deficit.
Nagorno Karabakh Conflict and Nakhchivan Corridor:
Following the dispersion of the Soviet Union, Russia-Azerbaijan relations were influenced by the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. MacFarlane stated that: Nagorno Karabakh conflict has given Russia control over the region, benefiting from sustaining the conflict, hence preventing the development in the region. To curb Russian leverage in Central Asia and the Caucasus and to provide energy diversification for the EU, the US developed multiple pipeline policies. (MacFarlane 2004). Turkey and Azerbaijan developed a close relationship since the independence of Azerbaijan, mainly due to cultural and ethnic ties. This strategic partnership became mutually beneficial in many spheres.
The Armenian offensive in Nakhchivan in May 1992, resulted in the development of a closer relationship between Turkey and Azerbaijan. Nakhchivan is under the protectorate of Turkey as covered in the 1921 Kars Treaty. Following the Armenian occupation of the Nagorno Karabakh, Turkey was prepared to intervene in the conflict as per the Kars Treaty, risking a confrontation with Russia.
Aggressive Armenian attacks resulted in a Turkish embargo on Armenia and terminating diplomatic relations. In the aftermath of the Nagorno-Karabakh War in the early 1990s, the region was internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but remained under Armenian occupation until September 2020. The 44 day war began with the Armenian offensive in September 2020, and resulted in Azerbaijan regaining control of some of her territories. The victory of Azerbaijan led to an agreement between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. The agreement included establishing the “Nakhchivan Corridor” which links Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan (A province of Azerbaijan). The new corridor paves the way for a new window of opportunities for the Caucasus region as a whole.
The “Nakhchivan corridor” will add a new artery to the Middle Corridor benefiting regional economic development Nakhchivan Corridor will be built between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan via Armenia, connecting Turkey to Central Asia.
The distance between Turkey and Azerbaijan will be shortened by 340 km, compared to the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, translating into a further reduction in transportation costs, and an alternative land route for Russia to the Middle East, benefiting regional economies.
The “Nakhchivan Corridor” is a strategic corridor stretching to Central Asia and likely to change the energy and trade equation in the Caucasus region as follows:
1. If the Nakhchivan corridor becomes operational, Azerbaijan would no longer have to pay a 15% commission to Iran to transport her gas.
2. Turkey will get a discount on her gas bill. As per the gas agreement signed between Turkey and Iran in 1996, Turkey pays $ 490 per thousand cubic meters for gas. If the same gas is bought from Azerbaijan, the cost will decline to $ 335 per thousand cubic meters.
3. When the Trans-Caspian pipeline gets back on the agenda, Turkmen gas will be delivered via the existing pipelines through Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey to Europe.
4. The importance of the Iran-Armenia pipeline will diminish.
5. Turkey will have a direct linkage to Central Asia extending to China.
6. A new rail corridor via Nakhchivan will become a second middle corridor, increasing commercial flows, elevating Turkey’s geopolitical position through partnerships with Central Asian states.
7. From the Eurasian perspective, the Nakhchivan corridor will be part of North-South and East-West corridors, increasing Eurasia connectivity.
The economic and trade potential of the Middle Corridor is exceptional and without any doubt, however, the geopolitical circumstances and ongoing developments in the global and regional arena pose significant challenges that require careful attention how to position OTS foreign policy and military strategy from a strategic positioning standpoint. These developments include the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict in the Middle East, the formation of BRICS, the menace of terrorism, and the newly erupted US-Iran war. In addition to these developments or challenges, there are rival corridor plans that are in place to undermine or presenting alternative to the regional strategic corridors.
Since the rise of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and international sanctions against Russia are in place, the most popular global shipping routes have become increasingly unreliable and are not viable. A significant number of companies are avoiding the Suez Canal traditional route, rather choose to go around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa. The war between Russia and Ukraine is a pain factor and challenge to the Middle Corridor along with any potential reigniting of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The irritation between Iran-Azerbaijan relations due to Iran’s support to Armenia is another challenge that needs to be addressed.
Pakistan can play an important role in these situations since having linked with Iran and Türkiye via RCD. The RCD highway formally known as highway N-25 already exists between Pakistan Iran and Turkey and it connects Balochistan with other provinces and cities in Pakistan and further Iran and Turkey. It is an 813 km long highway, passing through Karachi, Bela, Khadar, Kalat, Quetta and Chaman and then continuing into Afghanistan, it then joins N-40 (National Highway 40 Quetta-Taftan International Border Circuit) which leads it via Naukundi to Road 84 in Iran and through various Iranian Highways to Turkey and onwards to Europe.
The highway also has a recent connection to Gwadar and passes through many towns in Balochistan. Efforts must be made to make it a viable project linking Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, and Azerbaijan into the Caucasus and further Central Asia and Eurasia for connectivity reasons. This way, all these countries that are already under ECO umbrella will come even closer and huge potential can be explored via re-investment on this RCD highway, can be Turkey-Iran-Pakistan Economic Corridor or TIPEC having unique connections with many seas, the Persian/ Arabian Gulf, the Arabian Sea, pivotal Caspian & Black Sea. This is food of thought for said country’s’ policy makers. This possible corridor (TIPEC) having connection with CPEC is the powerful economic and strategic manoeuvre between these countries. Pakistan’s strategy in the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard aims to strengthen cooperation with Iran and Azerbaijan on the Caspian Sea to create a transit corridor that might boost Pakistani import-export and commercial trade. Pakistan wants to increase its influence and presence in the Caspian Sea, considering the outstanding geopolitical role that the region plays as an interconnector between Europe and Asia, a logistic hub, and energy market. Islamabad has discussed the possibility of strengthening cooperation with Iran and Azerbaijan to pursue this strategy. Pakistan China economic corridor can be a potential sister route to the Middle Corridor if both could be linked via Wakhan. This overall corridor circle consisting of CPEC and the Middle Corridor, starting from China and ending up in Türkiye via two pathways, could be a very viable strategy but yet to be explored.
LACHIN (Azerbaijan) Trilateral Summit:
On May 28 — the Independence Day of the Republic of Azerbaijan — a historic trilateral summit convened in Lachin, Azerbaijani region which was liberated from the Armenian occupation as the result of the Second Karabakh War. It brought together the President of Azerbaijan, Mr. Ilham Aliyev, the President of Turkey, Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr. Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif. This event not only marked a diplomatic milestone but also symbolized the growing political and strategic convergence of three key regional players.
1. Celebration of Karabagh war on Azerbaijan Independence Day 28 May (Youm E Takbeer for Pakistan when nation became declared nuclear power)
2. Beginning of a new powerful alliance after math of the recent 96-hour war with India
3. Economic cooperation (Middle Corridor and CPEC benefits)
4. Military Industrial Complex formation and potential sales
The timing and location of the summit carried profound symbolism. Choosing to hold this event on Azerbaijan’s national day was a testament to the country’s independent and confident foreign policy. It reflected Azerbaijan’s resolve to forge strong, value-based alliances, particularly with nations that have consistently supported its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The presence of Turkey and Pakistan on such a significant date was a message of solidarity and shared vision for the future. The Lachin summit was more than a ceremonial occasion. It was a declaration of intent and a reaffirmation of shared values.
As regional dynamics shift and new challenges emerge, the Azerbaijan– Turkey–Pakistan alliance will play an increasingly important role — not just as a security coalition, but as a force for economic development, cultural cooperation, and balanced international diplomacy. This summit marked a clear step forward in a strategic journey, one that holds promise for a more stable, prosperous, and cooperative future for all three nations and the broader region they inhabit.
FROM this Summit, the future alliance of OTS and TURAN is visible. This LACHIN meeting paved the path for Pakistan to be included as a strong crescent to join this greater Union, which eventually will compete ASEAN and EU in terms of economically and geopolitically
Thus, the Middle Corridor and CPEC can be referred as TURAN corridor due to similarity of the geo economic and geo strategic goals.
Conclusion
Central Asia occupies a strategic role on the Eurasian continent. Russia, China, the European Union, India, Iran, and Turkey each have different economic, political, energy, and security interests here. The dominant foreign powers in Central Asia are Russia and China. Bilateral relations between Central Asian countries and Turkey are likely to improve further with the Nakhchivan Corridor. A direct linkage will be established between Turkey and the Central Asian States, signalling a new era for the region’s economies and geopolitical advantages via a link in the Turkic world without interruption.
The corridor will also prevent delays currently Turkey is experiencing in Iran. The cost of trade will decline by about two-thirds between Turkey and Azerbaijan, while the distance will be shortened. Tourism, agriculture, and industrial sectors are likely to develop further in the region.
Currently, the Middle Corridor is the best alternative for China to reach out to European markets and the Middle Eastern markets. Total investments are expected to be around $8 trillion, of which $40 billion is to be allocated in the infrastructure. With the 230 km railway line to be built via Nakhchivan, Turkey will become a transit country on the North-South corridor, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars in the north, and the Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan route in the south.
Nakhchivan corridor will bring new opportunities to Turkey in terms of logistics and energy imports along with geopolitical advantage. Currently, 16 billion cubic meters of gas can be transported per annum from Azerbaijan via the TANAP Project, it may be possible to boost the capacity of the line up to 32 billion cubic meters. Thus, Turkey will be able to increase the use of Azerbaijani gas at a lower cost compared to the gas imports from Iran. Subsequently, Iran’s market share in the Turkish energy market is likely to decline. The Nakhchivan Corridor is thus critical for the region’s economies. In addition to the already active Baku-Tbilisi-Kars transport route, the Kars-Igdır Nakhchivan railway is likely to be added to the active line and become integrated OPINION CONCLUSION with the world: The distance between Kars-Iğdır Nakhchivan is approximately 200 kilometres. The distance between Erzurum and Kars is about 200 kilometres. Freight from Turkey to Azerbaijan will travel only 400 kilometres.
Currently, Kazakhstan transports cargo to Europe via Russia and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. A direct link between Turkey-Azerbaijan Kazakhstan via the Nakhchivan Corridor will allow these countries to transport cargo without a need to go through Iran or Russia. The Nakhchivan Corridor will expand economic growth options through new trade routes.
Both Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan ports in the Caspian Sea can accept cargo ships, allowing both countries to directly transport cargo from China to Europe without a need for Russia or Iran. In addition, the accident in the Suez Canal showed the need to develop alternative trade routes to prevent catastrophic results for world trade. Canal Istanbul Project can be seen as an alternative to the Suez Canal. The Project is an artificial passage planed by Turkey to connect Marmara to the Black Sea, with a daily passage capacity of 185 ships, raising minimum of 1 billion US Dollars in annual revenues, paving the way for a jump start in regional development.
Dr. Nurhan Toguc contributed to this article. The author is thankful to Dr. Nurhan’s valuable contribution from her intellectual work on “The Middle Corridor”.
