Despite having no credible evidence to support its farce of a “surgical strike,” India tried to get away with this blatant falsehood, mainly to impress its own population but also the international community. Indian commentators and defence analysts duly extolled this “tremendous” achievement, warning Pakistan that “years of turning the other cheek” was now a thing of the past.
Deployed on the LOC, 8th Battalion Northern Light Infantry (8 NLI) suffered two killed but inflicted more than a dozen killed and/or injured. The India media went to town building the euphoria to make something out of nothing. Bollywood could have staged this farce better, is Bollywood movie “Ek Tha Surgical Strike” on the cards in the near future?
On India’s Independence Day on Aug 15, 2016 Prime Minister Narendra Modi let the cat out of the bag about Indian intentions saying that “residents of Balochistan and Gilgit thanked him for saying that security forces have committed human rights violations in their regions”. This set aside any doubts about India employing both overt and means to destablise and foment violence inside Pakistan. With flight plans for dozens of military helicopters converging in Kashmir it didn’t take a genius to figure out the likely time and place of India’s choosing for possible heliborne operations to inflict permanent pain on Pakistan a la 1971. That on cue Brahamdagh Bugti asked for political asylum came as no surprise.
The Pathankot “false-flag operation” in Jan 2016 went off script after four terrorists were killed when two more terrorists appeared a day after the cleanup operation was declared successful. Another RAW “false-flag” operation was the attempt to make Sri Lankan cricketers in Lahore in 2009 hostages to force Sri Lankan forces to ease pressure on LTTE’s Prabhakaran finally cornered by them. While the ultimate RAW plan did not succeed, international cricket (and subsequently other sports) isolated Pakistan as a venue.
RAW uses both overt and covert means to interfere in the internal affairs of neighbouring countries. Zainab Market was a classic example of RAW’s “wheels within wheels”, the speed of the mob’s immediate reaction in a congested area spelt out a greater method behind Altaf Hussain’s madness. This cold and calculated RAW “false-flag” operation was meant to create a bloodbath and malign the Pakistan Army while diverting increasing world attention away from atrocities being committed by Indian forces against Kashmiri civilians. The stakes were so high they risked Altaf Hussain’s exposure as a long-term RAW asset, dealing a near fatal blow to his vise-like hold over Karachi for over five decades. With the Mohajir community staunchly Pakistan nationalists, the local MQM leadership was forced to go through the pretense of disowning him.
Kashmiri youth Burhan Wani’s killing gave momentum to the current uprising. More than 100 unarmed protestors have been killed by the Indian Army’s response freely using rubber pellets causing blindness, replacing than lately with chilli-based cartridges. With Kashmir aflame, a “casus belli” was needed for diverting attention and “fixing” Pakistan. On Sep 18 heavily armed militants attacked an Indian base at Uri killing 18 Indian soldiers, four militants were allegedly killed in the shootout. Almost immediately and without the slightest proof, Pakistan was blamed for the attack. Within hours Indian Home Minister Rajnath Singh termed Pakistan a ‘terrorist state’ tweeting (according to the script), that “Pakistan should be identified and isolated as such.”
Uri is eerily reminiscent of the Polish border incident, a “false-flag” operation conducted in 1939 when a small group of German operatives dressed up in Polish uniforms, attacked and seized the Gleiwitz radio station and announced that the town was invaded by Polish irregular formations. The Germans used human corpses to pass them off as Polish attackers. A provocative statement broadcast in Polish urging Polish minority in Silesia to rise and take up arms against Hitler was the “pretext” Hitler needed for invading Poland. Most historians agree that this started World War II. The Indian Express refuted Lt Gen Ranbir Singh when he claimed that weapons recovered from the militants bore “Pakistani markings”. Neither the weapons nor the barrel-fired grenades or launchers fitted on the Kalashnikovs had markings or insignia of any kind. The embarrassed Indian DGMO had to backtrack on his allegations.
Were (or are) the Indians trying a “grand slam” a la Kargil (1980) by trying to seize a part of the Karakoram Highway (KKH)? Heliborne military operations in the Northern Areas to sit astride a part of the CPEC will stall the project for some time, if not forever, by a Siachen-type stalemate, a possibility we cannot ignore. This Indian adventure will trigger hostilities between India and Pakistan. Capable of matching India bomb for bomb and missile for missile, sustained counter-insurgency operations for over a decade have made Pakistan’s professionally competent soldiers battle-hardened, the entire Army personnel being rotated in the combat zone, some even 2-3 times.
When last the BJP was in power, the Indians allowed us out of the “nuclear closet” by exploding their nuclear bomb in 1998. The attempted adventure by uniformed forces under the premise that “anything goes” across the LOC because Kashmir is disputed territory conversely can frees us of restraints from carrying out military operations within the disputed territory under the same “legal” logic. A brilliant do-able plan, “Operation Gibraltar” failed because the timing was not right, most of the participants were neither well trained nor had combat experience. Without adequate equipment and logistics they were launched when conditions within Kashmir were not conducive. Given our present Army’s combat readiness (including that of paramilitary forces and irregulars) being all combat ready and motivated, “Operation Gibraltar-2” is very much do-able 50 years later. That is the only way we will get Kashmir back as well as take control of our rivers. The civilian uprising within Kashmir has (unlike 1965) created the necessary conducive conditions on the ground among the populace. When push comes to shove, Indians will cross the international borders (as they did in 1965) to release the pressure on Kashmir. Without geographical depth use of our tactical nuclear weapons is an option.
Kautilya, whose teachings of 2500 years ago RAW clearly follows, never said, “Prepare for war, but hope for peace,” but said “Prepare for war and plan to conquer”. He argued that diplomacy is really a subtle act of war, a series of actions taken to weaken an enemy and gain advantages for oneself. Are we ready (and willing) to counter Kautilya’s disciples and change the course of history in South Asia?
