Dear Readers,
With tensions running high, relations between Pakistan and India are entering crisis mode over the killing spree of civilians in Indian Held Kashmir (IHK), Indian proxy groups and RAW agents fomenting chaos in Pakistan, the farcical “surgical strike” by India and the Uri incident that India is using to whip anti- Pakistani frenzy among its population. This kind of brinkmanship has in the past dragged on for months and it is under these circumstances, and the challenges by a very vocal and resurgent Opposition that demands his resignation, that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif faces a key choice about the next Army Chief. This decision will have a significant influence on Pakistan’s often strained relationships with the United States and India. PM Sharif holds the record for appointing the most number of Army Chiefs; this being the fifth time he will do so, a feat no other Prime Minister has achieved in Pakistan – as one writer aptly put it, “some people collect stamps, others play golf, Nawaz Sharif picks army chiefs. It’s a perilous hobby.” Things have not always gone smoothly for the PM vis a-vis his relations with the Army, he has a history of doomed relationships with his army chiefs. Having a penchant for inviting trouble, he prematurely sacked the Army chief Jahangir Karamat in 1998 and after superceding many senior Generals he promoted Gen Pervez Musharraf as the COAS, this subsequently proved to fatal with Sharif having to leave Pakistan and live in exile in Saudi Arabia. Whoever is appointed as the next COAS he will have to fill some pretty big shoes because Gen Raheel Shareef has not only served Pakistan extremely well on all fronts, he has also carved a niche for himself in the hearts of the people. For the benefit of readers my article titled “ARMY CHIEF, NOT FACTORY MANAGER” is being reproduced.
In 1975 PM Zulfikar Ali Bhutto re-named the Commander-in- Chief (C in-C), the Army’s Head, as Chief of Army Staff (COAS), subordinate to the mainly created Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (JCSC). His stated vision to have a modern integrated Armed Forces was correct, the real reason was to stave off possible military coup de etats by creating another power center. When push came to shove in 1977, the Chairman JCSC was powerless to stop the COAS from declaring Martial Law. The COAS today remains the C-in-C in all but name.
Consider my article “Just Say No” of Aug 29, 2016, “Gen Raheel Shareef should have no illusions, despite having performed as an Army Chief well “over and beyond the call of duty”, that the govt has any intention whatsoever of extending his tenure. Mired in controversy, not the least being PANA MA leaks, PML (N) are desperate to maintain status quo till Raheel Shareef retires in Nov 2016,” unquote. Imran Khan’s proposed “Bandh” of Islamabad is an added pressure. Easily the best COAS we have ever had, Gen Waheed Kakar said ‘no’ to PM Benazir’s request to take an “extension” for one year in 1995 because it would set off a chain reaction blocking pro motions in the army. To quote Gen Kakar, “However loyal and sincere the senior military hierarchy may be, potential aspirants would feel deprived of their turn at attaining the top slot for which rightfully they had ambitions (and worked for) throughout their career. Many capable officers would retire from service, putting an artificial monkey wrench into a natural process”.
Zardari exploited the chink in Kayani’s armour to the hilt, his siblings’ business activities forced Kayani to not only compromise with Zardari’s blatant corruption but gloss over important matters of State. No close relative should have any business with the Armed Forces, the ISI, the SPD, etc., anything the COAS can influence, directly or indirectly. For Musharraf personal loyalty carried more weightage than merit, Kayani mostly, and Raheel Sharif always, chose good “three stars” on merit. Professionally competent, today’s Lt Gens all have experienced combat through various ranks. Due diligence should look for negative aspects, if any, during the individual’s performance as Corps Commander and as a Principal Staff Officer (PSO). Clearing the “Kayani Litmus Test”, the principle of seniority is enshrined in law as in tile case of the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court (the Jehadi Trust case), the proviso being that the rea sons for supersession must be spelt out in writing.
Somebody immature, (possibly) a “non-state actor” from within the PML (N) hierarchy, planted the fabricated story meant to put Raheel Sharif, and by default, the Army under pressure. This reverse “swing” will give the COAS leverage to effect a compromise would be an unmitigated disaster. Whoever is guilty of force-multi plying enemy propaganda must be held accountable for damaging the national fabric, the betrayal cannot be brushed away. An open season would have many Cyril Almeida clones coming out of the woodworks. Pervez Rasheed has targeted the Army before, however some one senior sanctioned this great lie, he and Wani cannot be made sacrificial lambs. For starters the person (or persons) security clearance (s) must be immediately revoked, barring them forthwith from public office.
The higher national purpose requires the govt to correct the anomaly for which the JCSC was created in 1975. To quote my paper on “Fighting 21st Century Wars”, “Any war with India, a life-and-death struggle with an implacable foe, will be fast and furious, and for a limited period. While it will be influenced by the air and the sea, it will finally be won or lost on the ground. An all-powerful Chairman JCSC was. Meant to exercise overall control over the defence services”, unquote. With a vast majority of the populace wanting him to continue serving the country, Gen Raheel Shareef could make the vitally necessary transition to a unified command headquartered in GHQ. Personal aims superceding the national interest is a “win-win” situation for Pakistan” not likely to happen.
The Sharifs cannot tolerate anyone who does not jump to do their bidding without question. The Sharifs tend to select a “favorite” for crucial appointments they would their “factory managers”. Twice they have passed over the most deserving Sartaj Aziz for President selecting far lesser mortals like Rafiq Tarar and Mamnoon Hussain. Tarar failed the test when Musharraf took over, will Mamnoon be any different when push comes to shove? Despite giving some judgments against the Sharifs and the Punjab Govt, Justice Syed Mansoor Ali Shah was elevated to Chief Justice (CJ) of the Lahore High Court (LHC), eminent lawyer Babar Sattar calling it “a miracle”. Given their ingrained complex about Army Chiefs, the Sharifs keeping the national interest supreme will run counter to their normal pattern in appointing the COAS Pakistan will happily accept another miracle.
Both Wajid and Najibullah not having commanded a corps, the eligible line of seniority has all very competent professional soldiers in Zubair Hayat, lshfaq Nadeem, Javed Ramday and Qamar Bajwa in that order. Raheel Sharif may be convinced given our present security circumstances to serve for another year, or maybe even two years, appointing either Zubair or Ramday as the Chairman JCSC (or vice versa) and a four star Vice Chief of Army Staff (VCOAS). The Machiavellian theory holds that about two years down the line, Naveed Mukhtar, very distantly related to the Sharifs, will be in line for promotion through both age and retirement. While that seems far-fetched, the assumption is that the selected COAS will be a pushover the Sharifs want. They can do any number of permutations and combinations, Naveed is an out standing professional soldier with first loyalty to the country and the Army. Would the short lived COAS Ziauddin Butt been different? Not the Ziauddin Butt I knew as a gentlemen cadet and as an outstanding officer and gentleman! Inculcating the accumulated feelings of the rank and file of the Pakistan Army, the vital interests of the country and the Army supercedes everything as soon as the individual who becomes COAS sits in his chair.
My own preference is third in seniority Javed Ramday from my unit 4 Sindh, one has a soft corner for Qamar Bajwa, like Ramday another outstanding soldier. However the overwhelming feedback from a vast cross section of serving and retired Army rank and file is that the national interest requires the order of seniority over riding any personal interest. Given that caveat that we ore selecting a COAS Pakistan Army and not choosing a factory manager, Zubair should be the Chairman JCSC and lshfaq Nadeem the COAS.
