Exercised Options in the 2025 India-Pakistan Conflict
Historical Echoes: When Doctrine Forged Machines
Military doctrine is derived from three sources: Theory, Technology and History. These enablers play an interactive definitive role in developing ‘what we believe about best way to do things’ as per ‘Military Doctrine’ from Dennis Drew & Don Snow. Technology is a critical proponent as it fast-evolves today as per Moore’s Law.
As example of ‘Doctrine driven Technology’, machines before World War 2 in IR2.0 – Industrial Revolution 2.0 – like the B-17s, were manufactured out of ‘Strategic Bombing’ and the ‘Bomber will Always Get Through’ doctrine. Similarly, ‘Escorts Doctrine’ gave birth to P-51 Mustangs after the 8th air force lost 100 plus bombers in WW-II.
F-104s dictated an Air Superiority Doctrine for the PAF!
On the flip side of ‘Technology driven doctrine’, in Pakistan F-104s in the early 60s dictated an ‘Air Superiority’ doctrine to PAF. So did Mirages and F-16s. The May 2025 conflict was the first time PAF chose ‘Multi-Domain Operations’ doctrine to select technologies. Results were astonishing! Mere 26 J-10s with a handful of indigenous electronic technologies seamlessly tied through Link-17 turned the tables on the adversary at outbreak of hostilities on night of 6/7 May 2025. The consequent asymmetry outsmarted the much bigger IAF.
Aim: This effort inquires whether the PAF, heralded now as the more agile force of the two, due the 88-hour air war owed its success to a ‘smart’ doctrine or to better technologies or to a creative blend of both.
Situational Awareness and D3M: The Invisible Advantage
The latest doctrine seamlessly integrated technologies, consequently, a much smaller PAF (19/20 combat squadrons, with a budget around USD 3 billion) overwhelmed a much bigger force (31 squadrons with a budget of around USD 35 billion) from the word go. The punch line: all players – leaders & commanders, operators, pilots and combat controllers – had similar complete picture of friend/ foe, where each airborne asset was, and what was everyone doing. This enhanced SA – Situational Awareness – enabled real time D3M – Data Driven Decision Making – which made all the difference.
Divergent Doctrines: From RAF Roots to Rival Realities
IAF and PAF evolved from the same source i.e. RAF. Initially believed in similar doctrines, strategies and tactics of Counter Air Operations, Close Air Support, Suppression Enemy Air Defences (SEAD), etc. After the 1965 War, in 1971 the IAF could mount a big aerial offensive against the PAF in East Pakistan. A whopping twelve squadrons – creating a ‘large’ TSR (Time-Space-Relative Strength) matrix – against the lone No 14 squadron with only twelve Sabres against over 200 enemy fighters. It was a virtual walk over for the IAF after it cratered the only runway in first four days.
Come 2025, it was a different ballgame. The CCS pilot-controller team, reinforced by the multi- domain technologies, generated a higher TSR Matrix.
While the IAF seemingly continued with the same campaigns, with pilots and air defence controllers as the main actors;
PAF trained entirely differently. Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu ensured that this time around, the PAF not only trained well with the pilot-controller team, but it also had a host of technologies to assist; namely EW – Electronic Warfare, Cyber, Space, Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) with Network-Centricity.
Building the Backbone: NASTP and Indigenous Innovation
It was concluded early on that the country did not have requisite technological base to support a multi-domain infrastructure and thus operations, and that we needed niche technologies in the aforementioned key modern warfare enablers, which would truly produce an Integrated Air Defence System (IADS).
The ACM envisioned a sensor & data fusion capability to a much- advanced format compared to PADS-77, which itself was a wonder of its time. To support these goals, an ecosystem was thus created in the form of NASTP – National Aeronautics, Space and Technology Park.
The CAS was cognisant of the fact that, to make force development sustainable in the long term, focused indigenisation is pivotal. The NASTP dream, has started to serve that end today.
The Tech-Arsenal
EW and Eyes in the Sky
PAF had a small group, comprising only two aircraft for over three decades supported by multiple SAAB 2000 Erieye’s. IAF on the other hand had a bigger element with a two Netra AEW&CS – upgraded Embraer 145 – facilitated by three IL-76-based PHALCON AWACS.
A single DA-20 on 27 Feb 2019 during Operation Swift Retort effectively jammed communications and facilitated to shoot a Mig-21 (Abhinandan) and a Su-30. In the May 2025 conflict home-grown ESM and ECM units were used extensively.
Cyber Command
PAF set up an integrated cyber command to deal with all virtual-space matters. This was a major player as it was able to hack a number of military and non-military systems. This is now common knowledge from various media sources that on the Rafales RTB – Return to Base – pilots had to land in the dark without runway lights. Many utilities struggled to function even after the war ended.
Space
Assets were successfully employed for the first time for ISR and information-sharing across the Link-17 to all players.
Unmanned Aerial Systems
PAF put together a strong inventory of High-Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) and Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) vehicles with ISR equipment, laser designators and PGMs; supported with killer drones and loitering munitions for offensive use.
Network Centricity
The indigenously developed Link-17 played pivotal role to seamlessly integrate radars, aircraft, AWACS, EW systems and the combat operations centres; facilitated flawless precision with zero data loss. Redundancy was ensured to continue operations in all situations.
Training for Triumph: Simulating the Future
The operational doctrines were extensively ‘exercised’ and refined in two years after they were established prior to full force-projection in May 2025. The machines, the personnel and the concepts of multi-domain operations were continuously tested in the likes of Indus Shield Exercises. Thus, the Air Chief declared before the impending operations that the PAF had ‘trained very hard’ and is going to ‘hit very hard’, and it happened ditto at the time of execution on 6th and 7th May night 2025. After a gruelling one-hour BVR fight, IAF was left stunned on results of the first day-first show and remained grounded for next two days.
The Operations: That Stunned the Adversary
First Strike, Full Spectrum: The Night of 6/7 May: With wholesome and real-time battlespace SA, on the fateful late evening, PAF commanders and operators utilised their assets optimally, shooting six fighters and one Israeli Heron UAV. Reportedly, J-10s, JF-17s and F-16s were flying with radar and sensors off to deny detection by Indian systems while being fed real time data by AWACS via datalink. Supposedly, mid-course guidance was provided by AWACs to guide and update PL-15 missiles launched from the fighter elements.
Cyber Supremacy: Spoofing, Jamming, and Digital Disruption:
PAF cyber command countered the Indian drone operation on 8 and 9 May by a soft/hard kill combo. Snapping the data links and then spoofed GPS of 90 percent of drones. The leftover drones were then taken out with guns.
Precision Retaliation- From Spoofed Missiles to S-400 Strikes
On 10 May the Indians launched surface to surface and air to surface missiles – SCALP & Brahmos – onto PAF airfields. Most missiles were jammed and spoofed to overfly the bases thus causing no or minimal damage. As a counter, PAF retaliated from the same bases after the raid, to attack Indian targets with precision. A prized target was the USD 1.5 billion-dollar S-400, much touted air defence system, which was taken out with a CM-400AKG strike.
Doctrine Dictates Technology A Strategic Imperative
Decisively, ‘doctrine dictated technology’ for the first time in PAF history which is the most efficient method to employ airpower. For a shoe-string budget air force, this was a compulsion. The CAS was faced with a stark reality of limited fiscal space only for 26 J-10C and limited-to- zero industrial base to innovate for any aerospace or electronic systems. He applied himself to find the most appropriate solution. ‘Multi-domain operation’ had been in the books for years but was exemplified by present ACM to reap rich dividends. Shooting six fighters for zero loss was no mean achievement. Denying success to two-day Indian drone operations across the country was a testimony of the resilience and robustness of the infant cyber-systems. Senior Indian officers namely, its CDS Anil Chopra, Captain Shiv Kumar (Def Attaché in Indonesia) and Indian Army Deputy Chief Lieutenant General Rahul Singh accepted downing of six IAF fighters and Pakistani superiority in C4ISR capabilities.
Beyond 2025: Doctrine must Dictate AI/ Quantum Evolution
Where do we go from here?! The future is AI and ‘not using’ it is not an option. One can forecast that after mastering the cyber, space, and EW systems and to utilise them with telling effect in the 88-hour skirmish; PAF should incorporate Quantum Computing with AI, to find predictive solutions to daunting data-intensive future air wars.
Now, more than ever, it is imperative that ‘doctrine dictates technology’ is utilized for strategic and operational success!
